Official Group E Prediction thread

knowwonnose · 05-26-2006, 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AreliusIV

Not really. My hope may be as big as yours. But, that wasn't the question of this thread was it? It wasn't: Who do you hope goes through? It was: Who do you expect to go through? And based on the probabilities, I expect the Czech Republic and Italy to go through. That says nothing of the degree of my hope that the US goes through.

Actually, the original question isn't that well defined.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Question

Which two teams will go on from Group E?

People might read this as which teams have the highest probability of going through as you have talked about. Still, others could read it more idealistically factoring in their hope.

I don't have a problem with either interpretation.

Further, I think the questions surrounding Italian soccer, particularly the Juve players, brings certain unknowability to the group. I think this group is far from a done deal for any of the 4 teams.

AreliusIV · 05-26-2006, 01:08 PM

Quote:

Actually, the original question isn't that well defined.

People might read this as which teams have the highest probability of going through as you have talked about. Still, others could read it more idealistically factoring in their hope.

I don't have a problem with either interpretation.

So, let's say we were to make a wager of, let's say, $100 on who goes through. Who do you pick?

Quote:

Further, I think the questions surrounding Italian soccer, particularly the Juve players, brings certain unknowability to the group. I think this group is far from a done deal for any of the 4 teams.

True, and I've taken that into consideration. That is an unknown -- how much the scandal will effect the team. In my estimation, very little.

And I agree with you, nothing is a done deal. Especially in a sport as democratic as footy. However, were I to wager $100, I'd stick to the probabilities.

knowwonnose · 05-26-2006, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AreliusIV

So, let's say we were to make a wager of, let's say, $100 on who goes through. Who do you pick?

Let's put it this way, I never wager money, and I don't even like fantasy picks against my own team because I hate the feeling of I want my team to win, but it would be better if they didn't. In other words, I don't have the confidence in my US pick to put anything more on the line other than the small amont of humility I will gain in an internet forum. Does that make sense?

AreliusIV · 05-26-2006, 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knowwonnose

I don't have the confidence in my US pick to put anything more on the line other than the small amont of humility I will gain in an internet forum. Does that make sense?

My point exactly... And my sentiments exactly...

AreliusIV · 05-26-2006, 01:18 PM

I do notice that ever since we resurrected this discussion that Italy has been creeping up on the US in votes...

AreliusIV · 05-26-2006, 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AreliusIV

Based on the probabilities, I expect the Czech Republic and Italy to go through.

Please see this post, as it relates.

dysko · 05-26-2006, 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AreliusIV

Even though I don't like it, the probabilities tell me that at the end of the day this group will look like this:
Italy 9 pts.
Czech 6 pts.
USA 3 pts.
Ghana 0 pts.

Just base off of gut instict this is how I picked the group:

USA 7 (beats C:2-1, I:3-2, ties G:0-0)
Czech 6 (beats I:2-1, G: 2-0, loses US:1-2)
Italy 3 (beats G:1-0, loses US:2-3, C:1-2)
Ghana 1 (ties US:0-0, loses I:0-1, C:0-2)

AreliusIV · 05-26-2006, 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dysko

Just base off of gut instict this is how I picked the group:

USA 7 (beats C:2-1, I:3-2, ties G:0-0)
Czech 6 (beats I:2-1, G: 2-0, loses US:1-2)
Italy 3 (beats G:1-0, loses US:2-3, C:1-2)
Ghana 1 (ties US:0-0, loses I:0-1, C:0-2)

I don't understand why US would beat both Czech Rep. and Italy and only tie Ghana?

I think you are underestimating Czechs and Italy. Have you looked at their lineups lately?

RSLfrontrowfan · 05-26-2006, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dysko

Just base off of gut instict this is how I picked the group:

USA 7 (beats C:2-1, I:3-2, ties G:0-0)
Czech 6 (beats I:2-1, G: 2-0, loses US:1-2)
Italy 3 (beats G:1-0, loses US:2-3, C:1-2)
Ghana 1 (ties US:0-0, loses I:0-1, C:0-2)

Would this change if the US lays another egg tonight against Venezuela? If the US can't handle Morocco and Venezuela, forget about beating Italy and the Czechs.

AreliusIV · 05-26-2006, 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RSLfrontrowfan

Would this change if the US lays another egg tonight against Venezuela? If the US can't handle Morocco and Venezuela, forget about beating Italy and the Czechs.

I don't put a lot of stock in pre-WC matches. Even some of the the best teams in the world lay goose eggs against poor teams.