How many points from the next six July matches does Ellinger need?

[AreliusIV]

On 4/24, after starting the season with three losses and a draw (0-3-1), I posted this poll stating that between 4/24 and 5/30 RSL would have 4 home matches and one away match. I asked how many of those four home matches Ellinger would have to win to avoid being sacked.

28% of you said that he would have to win all four home matches to avoid being sacked.

50% of you said that he would have to win at least 3 of those four home matches to avoid being sacked.

94% of you agreed that he would have to win at least 2 of those four home matches to avoid being sacked.

How did Ellinger do?

During that period between 4/24 and 5/30 Ellinger won one match, drew another and lost the other two home matches (1-2-1). Many of you felt that this was mitigated by the fact that he won the sole away match during this period.

Many of you were encouraged by this, particularly when Ellinger pulled off another win at the start of June, leading to a four game unbeaten streak.

However since then, Ellinger has returned to his old losing ways, losing 4 matches and drawing one (0-4-1). This makes RSL's overall record for this season 3 wins, 8 losses and 3 draws (3-8-3) and a .272 winning record.

Additionally, RSL is 6 pts. behind the cRapids and a qualifying spot for the playoffs.

Many people believe that qualifying for the playoffs is a benchmark for success this season.

During July, RSL has four home matches (Chivas, 7/4; Dallas, 7/22; Chivas, 7/26; DC United, 7/29) and two away matches (LA, 7/8; Revs, 7/14).

Ellinger has already kind of set the bar for his future employment. According to Ellinger, in order to get back on track and qualify for the playoffs RSL must get points from all four home games, as well as points from at least one of the away games.

For Ellinger to say that RSL needs "points" from all four matches and at least one away match is ambiguous because "points" doesn't specify whether we're talking about a win or a draw. To simply say that RSL needs "points" gives room for quite a range of results.

For example, under Ellinger's July plan of getting points in at least 5 of the next 6 matches, the minimum number of points acceptable during the month of July is 5 pts. (5 draws). The most optimistic scenario would be 15 pts. (5 wins).

The range between 5 and 15 points is pretty broad so let's help Ellinger narrow this down.

So, using Ellinger's own benchmark of securing "points" in 5 of the next 6 matches, how many points from the next six July matches does Ellinger need to avoid being sacked? (Keep in mind that Ellinger has allowed for one away loss.)

[AreliusIV]

It is interesting to note that if RSL loses to Chivas tomorrow at home, then by Ellinger's standard, he will have failed in achieving his July goals (which include at least a point from all four July home matches).

[the Bardguy]

The question that I've been toying around with now is whether I actually want Ellinger to lose. I know that sounds terrible and a "true fan" would NEVER say anything like that...but (and I've posted this elsewhere) the problem as I see it is that we aren't even mediocre. I can live with that. Staying 3rd or 4th in the standings is not something I have a problem with...at least we will be in the playoffs. But the level of suckitude that this team has managed to show is horrible. No finishing, no clear on-field leader, poor tactics, and general mismanagement is what makes this team hard to cheer for. Don't get me wrong...I'll be there in my front row seat until they drag me out of it, but it's really hard to support a team that is just SO BAD on so many levels.

That is why I want us to lose. Get Coach E outta there. Bring someone PROVEN in. Who? I don't know...I don't get paid the big bucks to make those types of decisions. But it seems obvious to me that under the team's current management, the very livelihood of the franchise is at stake.

On a side note: it's probably my fault that the team is so bad. Every team I ever decide to follow invariably ends up sucking.

[dysko]

Originally Posted by the Bardguy

On a side note: it's probably my fault that the team is so bad. Every team I ever decide to follow invariably ends up sucking.

Spoken like a true Ute fan :offtopic:

[Aerick]

Your poll is too specific. You should leave the parenthetical options out of it. For instance, I may like to see him acheive 7 points, but not necessarily in the form of 1 win and 4 draws. I wouldn't mind seeing 2 wins and 1 draw, coupled with 2 losses. I know you are basing this logic on Ellingers own comments, but we aren't Ellinger, and we may feel differently about what kind of success on the field keeps him in his current position.

[I_Believe_In_Kreis]

Originally Posted by the Bardguy

The question that I've been toying around with now is whether I actually want Ellinger to lose.

The way I see it, there are three things that could happen:
1. RSL continues its current streak of mediocrity.
2. The team/coaching staff start to "get it" and RSL starts winning.
3. RSL nosedives into last place.

Obviously you're rooting for number 3. My only problem with this is, what happens if we tank it and Ellinger still doesn't get fired? For some reason coaches in Utah have to do something nearly criminal to get fired - maybe it's in the water. Rick Majerus, Roger Reid, Ron McBride, Utah St.'s last football coach, are all people who hung around way too long. Utah's also home to the longest tenured coach in pro sports. In fact, LHM is on record as saying Jerry Sloan is welcome to coach the Jazz as long as he wants. That's a dangerous guarantee to make (as you Jazz fans have seen recently).

Uncle Dave has said before that he's invested in Ellinger for the long term. So even if RSL does tank, I'm not sure he'd actually get fired. So I can't bring myself to root against this team.

[AreliusIV]

Originally Posted by I_Believe_In_Kreis

The way I see it, there are three things that could happen:
1. RSL continues its current streak of mediocrity.
2. The team/coaching staff start to "get it" and RSL starts winning.
3. RSL nosedives into last place.

Obviously you're rooting for number 3. My only problem with this is, what happens if we tank it and Ellinger still doesn't get fired? For some reason coaches in Utah have to do something nearly criminal to get fired - maybe it's in the water. Rick Majerus, Roger Reid, Ron McBride, Utah St.'s last football coach, are all people who hung around way too long. Utah's also home to the longest tenured coach in pro sports. In fact, LHM is on record as saying Jerry Sloan is welcome to coach the Jazz as long as he wants. That's a dangerous guarantee to make (as you Jazz fans have seen recently).

Uncle Dave has said before that he's invested in Ellinger for the long term. So even if RSL does tank, I'm not sure he'd actually get fired. So I can't bring myself to root against this team.

#2 above is highly unlikely since, after a season and a half, Ellinger still hasn't figured it out. This season has been a lot of the same.
#3 above is highly likely since LA have Landycakes back and RSL continues its streak of mediocrity.

With regards to the possibility of him getting sacked, remember the owner doesn't live in Utah, he lives in Conn. and he has been a very successful general manager for some of the most visible sports franchises in the world. I am confident Uncle Dave knows when and how to let the axe fall.

[AreliusIV]

Originally Posted by I_Believe_In_Kreis

The way I see it, there are three things that could happen:
1. RSL continues its current streak of mediocrity.
2. The team/coaching staff start to "get it" and RSL starts winning.
3. RSL nosedives into last place.

Obviously you're rooting for number 3. My only problem with this is, what happens if we tank it and Ellinger still doesn't get fired? For some reason coaches in Utah have to do something nearly criminal to get fired - maybe it's in the water. Rick Majerus, Roger Reid, Ron McBride, Utah St.'s last football coach, are all people who hung around way too long. Utah's also home to the longest tenured coach in pro sports. In fact, LHM is on record as saying Jerry Sloan is welcome to coach the Jazz as long as he wants. That's a dangerous guarantee to make (as you Jazz fans have seen recently).

Uncle Dave has said before that he's invested in Ellinger for the long term. So even if RSL does tank, I'm not sure he'd actually get fired. So I can't bring myself to root against this team.

The other option here is that Ellinger steps down if he doesn't reach his own benchmarks...

[prk166]

I'm not holding out a ton of hope for LA and the playoffs. They have have played half of their games and only have 12 points. I'd think with Yallop they can pick up a notch but again it's looking like teams will need to be in the mid-40s for points to make the playoffs. Last year it was 45. CO has 2 games in hand at home with a KC side comign to town that recently fell over and died for Los Angeles (where in the world is Eddie Johnson?). More so tomorrow night they play a NE team that will be playing their 4th game in 11 days. Then CO travels to New York. I think it's a fair guess that the Rapids will likely have 22 points (1-1-1 for those games) at their mid-season point. Double that and you get the 44. It's not a given, teams can have a good streak or a bad run of form. But in looking at those 2 teams, I think it gives one an idea of what RSL need sto do to get into the playoffs.

[I_Believe_In_Kreis]

Originally Posted by AreliusIV

I am confident Uncle Dave knows when and how to let the axe fall.

Given the past statements Uncle Dave has made with regards to Ellinger, and the fact that we've heard very little from UD regarding the 1.5 years of crappiness displayed by this team, I don't have the same confidence as you.