Expansion Team Battle as Season Winds Down [R]

[prk166]

Since I took the time to look this up elsewhere, I figured it would be good to share it here too. Who is going to end up the better of the two? RSL has a game in hand and a 5 point point lead. Does Chivas really have a chance to pass us up?


Chivas
7 games left : 21 points possible
4 homes games : 12 points possible
Crew, San Jose, Rapids, MetroStars
3 road games ; 9 ponts possible
San Jose, Crew, Rapids

RSL
8 games left ; 24 possible points +current 5 point lead
4 games at home : 12 points possible
Revs, Crew, DC, Colorado
4 games on the road : 12 points possible
FCD, Rapids, Rapids, SJ

[Rover]

Yes, they do, and it pains me to say that.

Will they? I hold to my "no predications policy." So these aren't predictions, just (barely) analyzing the matchups.

We have home games left against the Revs, Crew, DCU, and CRapids. We'll be in there to win two of those (Crew and CRapids) and very fortunate to pull a point with the other two.

We have four road games . . . need I say more? But to make the point, we play at the CRapids twice, and then at FCD and San Jose. The Quakes have already clinched (you're welcome) and Dallas likely will also by the time we play them so they may have let down. Maybe. We should be in the CRapids games, and they are the only games that we realistically can pick up a road win. So maybe one win out of four . . . and maybe a tie.

Cheetos have seven games, four at home (Crew, Quakes, CRapids, Metro) and three on the road (Quakes, Crew, CRapids). The way they're playing right now, I can see a couple of wins at home and another on the road.

So if we go optimistic for RSL and pull down four points from our remaining games, Cheetos will need nine points to tie us on points. That's possible.

We can do this. We need something positive to close out the season, and even if that positive is "We're not the worst," I'll take it.

And the RMC would be good to win too.

[Aero]

I think that we get at least 9 points out of our remaining games. We can win at least two of our remaining four home games and it is likely that we win a third. We usually play well at home. I think we can beat the Crew and Crapids, with a good shot this weekend against NE. That would give us a 14 point advantage meaning that Chivas would have to get 15 points or 5 games. I certainly don't see them winning 5 out of their remaining 7 games. And that's if we don't do anything at all on the road.

Originally Posted by Rover

We have home games left against the Revs, Crew, DCU, and CRapids. We'll be in there to win two of those (Crew and CRapids) and very fortunate to pull a point with the other two.
...
So if we go optimistic for RSL and pull down four points from our remaining games...

If you are going to give us two home wins and a possible tie, that is at least 6 maybe 7 points which is more than the optomistic 4 you gave us. If we only get 6 that still gives us an 11 point lead meaning Chivas would have to win 4 of their remaining 7 games. They may have improved, but I don't think that they have improved that much.

I don't think that they will catch us as long as we continue to play well at home.

[Rover]

Originally Posted by Aero

If you are going to give us two home wins and a possible tie, that is at least 6 maybe 7 points which is more than the optomistic 4 you gave us. If we only get 6 that still gives us an 11 point lead meaning Chivas would have to win 4 of their remaining 7 games. They may have improved, but I don't think that they have improved that much.

I don't think that they will catch us as long as we continue to play well at home.

I didn't give us anything.

Remember, I don't make predictions.

This is not about results, it's about the possibilities. Of course we can win several of these games, and cheetos can lose all or most of theirs. They still have no defense and have yet to prove they can decisively beat anyone--except us. We could rebound from the DC game like we have from other poundings. If we hold serve the rest of the way--or even drop three along the way--we still come out higher on the table. We have a game in hand. We have the advantage.

But can cheetos catch us, based on the schedules left for both teams. I think so. Will they? Probably not.

[Aero]

Originally Posted by Rover

Will they? Probably not.

Now that's the kind of "prediction" I like to hear and I totally agree with. I say probably not also. It's possible, but I just don't think it will happen, much like RSL making the playoffs.

[Stucki]

I suppose it is time to start singing about winning the Rocky Mountain rather than MLS cup.

[prk166]

I agree. I think it's unlikely they'll catch up. They're still leaking goals so any fancy new goal scoring on their part will only be worth so much.

[Scilaci]

We could sing about the Rocky Mountain Cup AND the Expansion Cup. If there were such a thing (we could just invent it and win it) then we would be in first place this year. woo hoo!